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Iran Likely Had Failed Rocket Launch   06/23 06:10

   

   DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Iran likely conducted a failed launch of 
a satellite-carrying rocket in recent days and now appears to be preparing to 
try again, the country's latest effort to advance its space program amid 
tensions with the West over its tattered nuclear deal.

   Satellite images, a U.S. official and a rocket expert all confirmed the 
failed launch, earlier this month, at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran's 
Semnan province. The attempt comes as Iran's space program has suffered a 
series of high-profile losses, while its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard runs 
its own parallel program that launched a satellite into orbit last year.

   Iran's Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi later 
Wednesday denied Tehran had a failed satellite launch, but offered no 
explanation for the activity at the spaceport. Iran's mission to the United 
Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Wednesday.

   Satellite photos from Planet Labs Inc. and Maxar Technologies show 
preparations at the spaceport on June 6. Those images include what appears to 
be fuel tanks alongside a massive white gantry that houses a rocket, while 
scientists fuel it and prepare for launch. Before the launch, workers tow the 
gantry away to expose the rocket.

   The number of fuel tanks, based on their size, appear to have been enough to 
fill the first and second stages of an Iranian Simorgh rocket, said Jeffrey 
Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the 
Middlebury Institute of International Studies. The Simorgh is a 
satellite-carrying rocket that has been launched from that same area of the 
spaceport, he said.

   Later satellite images on June 17 showed a decrease in activity at the site. 
Lewis said analysts believe Iran launched the rocket at some point in that 
window.

   "Nothing had blown up. There wasn't a giant stain -- like they had dumped 
the fuel -- and the vehicles had kind of just moved around," he said. "The 
overall level of activity at the site was much lower. So to our mind, that 
looked like a launch."

   CNN, which first reported on the failed launch, quoted Pentagon spokesman 
Lt. Col. Uriah Orland saying that "U.S. Space Command is aware of the Iranian 
rocket launch failure which occurred early June 12." Orland did not elaborate. 
The Pentagon and U.S. Space Command did not immediately respond to a request 
for comment early Wednesday from The Associated Press.

   It wasn't immediately clear why Iran would have picked June 12 for a launch 
as Tehran typically schedules such launches for national commemorations. 
However, it did come in the run-up to Iran's presidential election last week, 
in which the Islamic Republic had hoped to boost turnout.

   On Sunday, a new satellite image from Planet Labs showed renewed activity at 
the site. The image shows a mobile platform previously used to secure a Simorgh 
rocket at the gantry, a support vehicle seen at previous launches and a new 
line of fuel containers lined up at the site. Lewis said the equipment suggests 
that another launch is imminent.

   Over the past decade, Iran has sent several short-lived satellites into 
orbit and in 2013 launched a monkey into space. The program has seen recent 
troubles, however. A failed launch this month would be the fourth in a row for 
the Simorgh program. A separate fire at the Imam Khomeini Spaceport in February 
2019 also killed three researchers, authorities said at the time.

   A rocket explosion in August 2019 drew even the attention of then-President 
Donald Trump, who later tweeted what appeared to be a classified surveillance 
image of the launch failure. The successive failures raised suspicion of 
outside interference in Iran's program, something Trump himself hinted at by 
tweeting at the time that the U.S. "was not involved in the catastrophic 
accident." But Lewis said such failures are common, especially when trying to 
put objects carefully into orbit around the Earth.

   Meanwhile, the Guard in April 2020 revealed its own secret space program by 
successfully launching a satellite into orbit. The head of the U.S. Space 
Command later dismissed the satellite as "a tumbling webcam in space" that 
wouldn't provide Iran vital intelligence -- though it showed Tehran's ability 
to successfully get into orbit.

   The launch comes after the landslide election of Iranian President-elect 
Ebrahim Raisi, the country's hard-line judiciary chief tied to the mass 
execution of thousands in 1988. The vote saw the lowest turnout in a 
presidential election since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

   Raisi will take over from Iran's outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a 
relative moderate who guided Tehran into its 2015 nuclear deal with world 
powers. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, setting in 
motion months of tensions in the wider Mideast that continue today. Diplomats 
in Vienna now are negotiating a way for both Iran and the U.S. to re-enter the 
deal, which saw Iran agree to limit its nuclear enrichment in exchange for the 
lifting of economic sanctions.

   The U.S. has alleged such satellite launches defy a U.N. Security Council 
resolution and called on Iran to undertake no activity related to ballistic 
missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

   Iran, which long has said it does not seek nuclear weapons, previously 
maintained that its satellite launches and rocket tests do not have a military 
component. U.S. intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy 
Agency say Iran abandoned an organized military nuclear program in 2003.

   The Simorgh, however, is far too large and too slow to fuel to be a good 
carrier for a nuclear-tipped weapon, Lewis said.

   "It's a butter knife," he added. "Could you stab someone with a butter 
knife? Yeah, but that's not really the tool."

 
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