WASHINGTON (DTN) -- The United Nations warned Thursday that disruptions to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will reduce global crop yields worldwide and tighten food supplies well into 2027.

"We meet at a moment of profound strain," said Qu Donyu, who has served as director-general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) since 2019. "This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system."

Qu, who served as China's vice minister of agriculture before taking his role at the FAO, spoke at the ministerial meeting of Mediterranean countries on "Supporting Food Security and Access to Fertilizers," co-chaired by the FAO, Italy and Croatia.

The problems facing farmers now will carry forward into the next harvest, tightening global food supplies in the second half of this year and carry into 2027, he said.

"Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed," he said. "Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later."

The maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already disrupted trade of sulfur and fertilizers, along with oil and natural gas. Qu warned of "potential severe consequences for agricultural production and food prices."

Import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and parts of the Middle East are among the most exposed, especially those already facing acute food insecurity, economic fragility or climate-related shocks, he said.

For now, Qu stressed the importance of keeping supply chains functioning by facilitating alternative trade routes, avoiding export restrictions, supporting farmers' access to agricultural inputs and protecting humanitarian supply chains.

Qu also called for strengthened regional coordination, diversification of fertilizer and energy sources, and targeted support for the most vulnerable economies.

In the long term, Qu underscored the need for structural transformation to reduce dependence on concentrated supply routes and fossil fuel-based inputs, including through investments in sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, innovative fertilizer solutions and stronger storage and logistics systems.

The ministerial meeting brought together ministers and senior representatives from more than 40 Mediterranean and partner countries and organizations to discuss the implications of disruptions to global energy, fertilizer and food supply chains, and to strengthen regional cooperation on food security and agrifood system resilience.

US TRIES TO BRING DOWN FERTILIZER PRICES

In the U.S., the Trump administration continues to search for options to bring down fertilizer prices, and Congress is also looking into the need to protect farmers from input price shocks.

On Tuesday, Agriculture Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden highlighted that the Trump administration wants to increase domestic fertilizer production. In a speech to the Agricultural and Food Law Policy Briefing sponsored by the National Agricultural Law Center and the NASDA Foundation in USDA's Jefferson Auditorium, Vaden said control of 70% of the nitrogen fertilizer market by four firms and 100% of the potash market by two firms "raises legitimate questions about whether prices consumers are paying reflect the actual market price."

Vaden said he is pleased the Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether the fertilizer industry is operating in the free market as required under antitrust law. He and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins have found the Justice Department "to be a reliable partner," Vaden said.

Vaden noted that the International Trade Commission is looking at a sunset review of countervailing duties on fertilizer from Morocco. Those duties have cost American farmers an additional $6.9 billion in additional phosphate fertilizer expenses, he said.

Rollins has told reporters that there is debate within the administration about whether the countervailing duties on Moroccan fertilizer should be lifted, but Vaden was harshly critical of the duties. He pointed out Tuesday that there have been no major announcements of an increase in the phosphate fertilizer supply while the duties have been in place. The duties were put in place on the grounds that the Moroccan fertilizers created unfair competition to domestic sources.

"That translates into a cost of $6.9 billion with no clear return to the American farmer," he said. Farmers should participate in the public process of the sunset review, he said.

"With nitrates, we have an ace in the hole," because unlike Europe, the United States is not engaging "in a war on fossil fuels," Vaden said. The biggest expense in making nitrate fertilizer, he said, is energy, and energy "is cheaper in the United States" than in any other modern western economy "because we have the right energy policy."

USDA is looking at funding fertilizer projects using programs set up under previous administrations and new ones, he said. U.S. companies are interested in increasing fertilizer production, but he could not share details at this time, he said.

Asked about organic fertilizer, Vaden said his own family uses chicken litter on their farms in Tennessee and Kentucky and that the 45Z tax credit, which is yet to be finalized, could provide tax benefits to farmers who use chicken litter.

Congress is also paying attention. The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday, May 12, titled "Perspectives on the Fertilizer Industry: Ensuring a Stable and Affordable Supply for American Producers."

Witnesses set to testify will be:

-- Andy Green, principal and senior adviser, Center Market Strategies, Washington, D.C.

-- Trent Kubik, vice president, South Dakota Corn Growers, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

-- Eddie Melton, president, Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation, Louisville, Kentucky.

-- Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO, Fertilizer Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

-- Joshua Westling, CEO, J. Westling & Co. LLC, Omaha, Nebraska.

The hearing will be held at 2 p.m. Central and will be livestreamed on the committee's website.

DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton contributed to this report.

Also see "Ag Secretary Rolls Out Fertilizer Strategy Amid Pressure Over Prices" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Jerry Hagstrom can be reached at jhagstrom@nationaljournal.com

Follow him on social platform X @hagstromreport

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