Cattle on Feed Report Preview 10/21 11:30
Market Volatility Following Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed Report Raises
Anticipation for Oct. 1 Numbers
By Rick Kment
DTN Contributing Analyst
USDA Actual Average Estimate Range
On Feed Oct. 1 99.3% 98.9-99.9%
Placed in September 101.4% 98.8-103.3%
Marketed in September 97.2% 97.0-98.9%
OMAHA (DTN) -- The release of Friday's Oct. 1 USDA Cattle on
Feed report will be closely watched again. The market volatility
that followed the September report is adding even more fuel to
the fire and heightenin anticipation for the upcoming numbers.
Analyst expectations for total cattle on feed on Oct. 1 is 99.3%
of a year ago. This would account for a total on-feed number
(feedyards of 1,000 head or greater) of 11.63 million head.
Although this estimate would be slightly below pandemic-year
levels, it would still be the second-highest October on-feed
number since the data set was established, outpaced only by
2020. Traditionally, cattle on feed numbers peak in the December
report, adding concern that further increases will be seen in
Cattle placements are projected at 101.4% of year-ago levels,
which would not be out of line with seasonal trends, but this
too could spark additional market shifts if actual placement
levels are significantly different than expectations.
Marketing levels of cattle during September are expected at
97.2% of year-ago levels. Marketings will likely take a back
seat to placements and on-feed numbers following the report but
should not be totally overlooked, as this will help indicate the
overall ability to move cattle through the system heading into
the fourth quarter of 2021.
Any significant deviations from pre-report estimates, especially
in on-feed or placement categories, are likely to spark moderate
trade shifts early next week. Current estimates have already
been partially accounted for in cattle futures prices through
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