DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/21 10:51
Grain Futures Seeing Red All Over Thursday
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower, beans are 17 to 18 cents lower and wheat
is 6 to 12 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market was mixed with the Dow down 160 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.07 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are
weaker with crude down $2.05. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are weaker with gold down $3.
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade pulling back
from the recent highs as trade seeks further bullish news to push higher amid
oversold conditions. Harvest will continue to make further progress short term
as we head towards the homestretch. Ethanol margins should remain stable to
better short term, with production continuing to surge despite natural gas
prices as we work to rebuild stocks. Basis should remain steady to firmer short
term as harvest pressure eases. Weekly export sales continue to improve at 1.27
million metric tons along with 130,000 metric tons sold on the daily wire. On
the December contract, we have chart support at the 200-day moving average at
$5.20 with the $5.06 3/4 low last Wednesday now a major support area. Chart
resistance is right around the $5.40 area, which is the daily high and the
50-day moving average, with larger upside resistance at the upper Bollinger
Band at $5.46.
Soybean trade is 17 to 18 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from
Wednesday's strength with fresh news lacking to push trade. Meal is $4.50 to
$5.50 lower and oil is 1.90 cents to 2.20 cents lower fading back from the
fresh highs Wednesday. Harvest will continue to progress with open enough
weather, with basis stable as shipping progress increases. Chart momentum has
faded a bit overnight as we pull back from recent highs as well. Weekly exports
were good at 2.88 million metric tons of bean, 240,400 metric tons of meal, and
3,000 metric tons of old oil, and 100 metric tons of new. On the November
soybean chart, support is at the $12.22 10-day moving average and then the
recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the 20-day currently at $12.41 then
the 50-day at $12.81.
Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents lower at midday with Minneapolis remaining the
leader and KC the laggard overnight. Spring wheat spreads continue to be strong
while winter wheats fade a bit. Spring wheat remains at a 2.43-cent premium to
Chicago, with KC at 6 cents in mixed action. The dollar remains off the highs
adding support, while export sales struggled a bit at 362,400 metric tons.
Weather in the Plains remains fairly neutral for the moment with the first
condition reports likely next week. KC December chart support is at the 20-day
at $7.37 with resistance at the 10/4 high of $7.64.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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